Counterfactual Part 2: USSR/USA war in Korean War Period (1950-1951)

 So this is part 2 of the post of a short while back. The questions were 

1. What might have combat in Europe at this time(Korean War) looked like?
2. If the war escalates to nuclear exchanges what are we looking at

Here we already have a fairly full on confrontation going on on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea (and Communist China) are at this point both direct clients of the USSR. That combat certainly gives an idea what fighting in Europe might look like as the North Korean weapons and doctrine are pure Soviet in nature. The NSC-68 report foresaw a rapid advance of the USSR across continental Europe. The information here US Army Between World War II and the Korean War suggests only 1 active division in Europe with a total of only 10 active divisions. There was also a general paucity of materiel of all sorts (weapons, ammunition, rations, uniforms etc) that would have greatly impeded any response, just as it did in Korea. NSC-68 suggests there were 26 Soviet divisions in Eastern Europe although the Rand Paper questions how many of those were other than paper divisions and also questions whether there would have been issues with at least low level rebellion. It looks to me like the USSR has the upper hand here but I suspect it is a far harder task than the NSC-68 report suggests.

Nuclear combat is a totally different issue. The USSR at this point literally can not strike the continental US other than at a few points and there only with suicide runs. The TU-4a (B-29 copies modified for nuclear delivery) are rare and of limited number and highly limited range. Europe and the UK they can reach although even mid 50's jets are a nightmare for B-29 class hardware as seen by the kind of havoc wreaked by Mig 15's against the B-29s in the Korean theater. The USSR may have up to 50 RDS-1 weapons (Their implosion based weapon similar to the production US MK-3 ) but having them and being able to use them are two different things. One might also see weapons used against US bases in Japan.

 The US isn't much better off. The weapon has improved with the MK4 which does not need as much hand assembly as the MK3 did, but still needs some work to be operational. I have a lovely document Ramey AFB conference April 1950 that has what appear to be a briefing on the war plans (declassified of course). Interesting things to note:

• SAC had 27 B-36 long range bombers at this point (see Chart after page 2). Nuclear capable B-50 (uprated B-29) and B-29 at this time of the latter only 50% are nuclear capable
  
• There was an exercise "Dualism" (page 3) war gamed out. There were 6 A Bomb assembly teams available to be moved, plan was 5 to European theater, 1 to Alaska. Chart between pages 3 and 4 has detailed movements of teams and aircraft groups. This was to occur 3 days after things are set in motion
• There were 123 targets selected. About half were well understood The other half would need reconnaissance before the strike. 
• First strikes were planned 6 days after the order was given, numbering about 26, this uses 10 of the B-36 and over 100 B-29/B-50 based out of the UK. This is not a time on target set of strikes, the attacks have a maximum of 4 hours between them. Also only 1 bomber in each strike carries a nuclear weapon. Other aircraft are for support (i.e. decoys).
  
• Further strikes would be delivered in another 3 days with all strikes completed by 30 days from initial orders.
• Nuclear bombing accuracy from high altitude accuracy was initially poor. In testing SAC's achieved Circular Error Probable was ~5000 feet. That's basically a circle a mile across. They fought the CEP down to ~1800 feet, but that's still a large area. It will kill soft targets, but protected targets may survive.
  
• There's a section on issues near the end of the briefing. At the time of the briefing there were a whole bunch of issues. Effectively only 3 airstrips in the UK had all the desired hardware and runways long enough. Fighter escort is a big issue. Also the bombers in question have lots of technical issues. It is NOT the SAC we thought of in the 60's and 70's
  

How many of these bombs would reach their target? Presuming the Soviet PVO is not a total catastrophe (not a given mind you) if the targets are at all defended things will get ugly quickly for the US bombers. This is also a MUCH longer nuclear combat than those of us raised in the missile age are used to thinking of. The bulk of the strikes take 6-9 days to happen and there is a lot of wind up. The whole thing might go on for 30 days.

Best guess 10-30 strikes finally occur in the USSR. The UK gets attacked hard to try to stop the additional attacks. Maybe 5-10 weapons are delivered in the UK aimed at the bases used. Other targets in Europe might be hit if US was basing out of there, or maybe just out of sheer nastiness. This doesn't feel like an end of the world scenario, but as the old saw goes one nuclear bomb will ruin your whole day. USSR is probably done with for a while, UK is hurting badly, Continental US is unaffected unless suicide attacks are made from Soviet Far east against NW US (Seattle) or nearby Canadian cities like Vancouver. These are 20-35 Kiloton weapons very similar to that used at Nagasaki or the Trinity test. If you're not within a few miles of the hypocenter of the blast you are relatively unaffected. How affected the USSR is depends on which targets get hit and how much their infrastructure is damaged

Tregonsee (L2) signing out for now